Post #74

Subject:: Martians are in charge of our foreign policy! :p

http://www.townhall.com/

“The wars against radical Islamic insurgents,” by Charles Krauthammer. My responses and additions – in [brackets]….

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Of all the arguments for pulling out of Iraq, its comparative unimportance vis- a-vis Afghanistan is the least serious.

And not just because this argument assumes that the world's one superpower, which spends more on defense every year than the rest of the world combined does not have the capacity to fight an insurgency in Iraq as well as in Afghanistan. But because it assumes that Afghanistan is strategically more important than Iraq.

Thought experiment: Bring in a completely neutral observer -- a Martian -- and point out to him that the United States is involved in two hot wars against radical Islamic insurgents. One is in Afghanistan, a geographically marginal backwater with no resources, no industrial and no technological infrastructure. The other is in Iraq, one of the three principal Arab states, with untold oil wealth, an educated population, an advanced military and technological infrastructure which, though suffering decay in the later Saddam years, could easily be revived if it falls into the right (i.e. wrong) hands. Add to that the fact that its strategic location would give its rulers inordinate influence over the entire Persian Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Gulf states. Then ask your Martian: Which is the more important battle? He would not even understand why you are asking the question.

[Also, point out to the Martian that Afghanistan – “a geographically marginal backwater with no resources, no industrial and no technological infrastructure” – was the place where 9/11 came from. The Martian would not understand why we have not finished in Afghanistan.

[Also, point out to the Martian that the atomic bomb named “George W. Bush” will come from Afghanistan not Iraq. Osama loves us being in Iraq, slowly bleeding to death and giving him a recruiting poster. For every day America is in Iraq, how many jihadists are recruited?]

If our resources are so stretched that we have to choose one front, the Martian would choose Iraq. … But you do not decide where to fight on the basis of history; you decide on the basis of strategic realities of the ground. You can argue about our role in creating this new front and question whether it was worth taking that risk in order to topple Saddam Hussein. But you cannot reasonably argue that in 2007 Iraq is not the most critical strategic front in the war on terror. There's no escaping its centrality. Nostalgia for the ``good war'' in Afghanistan is perhaps useful in encouraging anti-war Democrats to increase funding that is really needed there. But it is not an argument for abandoning Iraq.

[Yes, the wise Martian would answer the question with a question. What is America’s interests? America’s interests = ending the war and not leaving chaos behind. Stopping the bleeding so that we may respond with our military to other threats -- such as the on-going threat from Afghanistan.]

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There were two points emphasized in the discussion forum for that column.

First, the Iraq war is/was about oil. Saddam was a threat because he sat on a lot of oil. There is no ideological struggle, no spreading of democracy. Bush says that he wants a government that can protect itself – what he really means is “protect our supply of oil.”

Second, we – probably – will have to return to protect our supply of oil. Our presence, our military presence, in the Middle East is required as long as Americans drive SUVs. The threat of terrorism takes a backseat to the threat of a cut-off of oil.

I say us returning is why the second half of America’s interests as defined above – “not leaving chaos behind” – is so important. We need to lesson the chances of us having to return. We can not stay another 5 years or 10 years or 20 years – Bush wants 2. The next President will have to manage the aftermath. If we do have to go back, let’s go back with a rested and resupplied military. Until then, let’s keep our focus on our real enemy that has an atomic bomb named “George W. Bush,” our enemy in Afghanistan not Iraq.